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Old 04-23-2010, 11:41 AM
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DaveInDenver DaveInDenver is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by national Weather Service
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

FXUS65 KGJT 230941
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 AM MDT FRI APR 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TODAY. MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND COVER
MUCH OF WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ON ALL NORTH-
FACING SLOPES. THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AACCUMULATIONS..THIS WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUE FOR CO ZONES 4...9...13...10...AND 12.
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ZONES 3 AND 18...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. A STRONG TROWAL
SIGNATURE IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF COLORADO THIS
EVENING...AND START SLIDING EAST LATE TONIGHT. THE ETA AND GFS MOVE
THE LOW CENTER STEADILY EAST TONIGHT...THUS THE MOISTURE WILL ERODE
TO THE EAST LATE.


SATURDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNSET SATURDAY A WEAK RIDGE AND
NW FLOW ARE PROJECTED OVER THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SIGNIFICANTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE UT AND SW
CO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEAK RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND WOULD HELP WITH SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CO. THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SKIRTING THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST UT AND
NORTHWEST CO. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND ANOTHER
RIDGE FORMS WEST OF THE AREA.

THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SLIDE EAST AND OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.


AFTER THIS SHORT BREAK THE NEXT PAC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND LATER
TUESDAY AND TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE BY MID WEEK.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A JET AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST LOW CENTER WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST AND MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ANOTHER LOW
WILL SWING AROUND THE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FIRST AND BECOME CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. WE SHOULD SEE UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN SNOWFALL AND LOW CEILINGS...
ESPECIALLY OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
HOVER BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 018.
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6AM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE
009.
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
004-010-012-013.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 003. UT...NONE.
This is not a terrible forecast since it describes generally improving conditions with relatively small chances for soaking rains.

Grand Junction NOAA NWS Zone Map. Moab is in the southwest corner of NWS GJ Zone 27 and the western La Sals are Zone 28. BFE I believe lies mostly in zone 27 just north of zone 29.

Attachment 18303
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Last edited by DaveInDenver; 08-26-2010 at 10:14 AM.
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