From what I have heard, worldwide demand is pretty solid for diesel and the price varies little these days. I doubt it has any reason to go down much. Sorta takes all the fun out of speculating about a TDI VW, and makes filling up the PowerStroke less fun, too.
In some European countries, it's subsidized, but that may change:
Here's something about the high price:
One of the best explanations can be found within the pages of the Energy Information Administration web site:
"Historically, the average price of diesel fuel used in motor vehicles has been lower than the price of regular gasoline. However, this is not always the case. In some winters where the demand for distillate heating oil is high, the price of diesel fuel has risen above the gasoline price. Since September 2004, the price of diesel fuel has been generally higher than the price of regular gasoline all year round for several reasons:
- High worldwide demand for diesel fuel and other distillate fuel oils, especially in Europe, China and the U.S. and a tight global refining capacity available to meet demand.
- The transition to low-sulfur diesel fuel in the U.S., which is affecting diesel fuel production and distribution costs.
- The Federal excise tax on diesel fuel is 6 cents per gallon higher (at 24.4 cents/gallon
) than the tax on gasoline."