I have a D40 and A D200. If I had it to do over again, I wouldn't get the D200. But that is only cuz I spent over $1000 for it. I think the thing to do is to get into an SLR family and spend your money on high quality optics because I still think that the digital bodies, while really good now, still have a long way to go. And the D40 is nice and small and does just as good for everything up to 8x10.
And the optics you buy today really won't see much, if any, depreciation or cost reduction. It is the silicon in the bodies that are subject to Moore's Law. Put another way, money spent on bodies will be outdated while money spent on lenses won't significantly depreciate.
<SNOB>At that price though, I'd snap up that D200 in a picosecond over the Canons</SNOB>
My father-in-law was a spy and bequeathed to me two awesome medium format cameras and a nice Nikon F5 35mm that all dramatically outperform any of the digital cameras we've been talking about.
But I expect that in 5 years we'll have a nice small DSLR that will blow away what is currently available and it will cost $400.